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The
last six years have witnessed what can undeniably be termed the most sincere
efforts over the last four decades to redress the political and economic
situation in Egypt. However, inasmuch as these efforts have hitherto been
directed at reforming this or that aspect of the system, and not at the
general framework of
that system, we believe they have reached a dead end. The time has come
for a different kind of approach. Over the past six years we have been dealing
with the symptoms, now we have to tackle the very core of the diseases if they
are not to become terminal. The situation calls for a frontal attack on the
root causes of
the problems plaguing us, not for stop-gap
solutions to their manifestations. We advocated just such a global
approach in a series of articles which
ran in the press through 1985 and were published in book form early in
1986 under the title: "What is to be Done? Diagnosing and Analyzing the
Problems of Contemporary Egypt".
The
present government seems to be headed towards just such a course. The way in
which it is handling
the problem of subsidies and the question of foreign exchange rates
indicates that it is determined to tackle the root cause of the disease rather
than to address each symptom separately in a futile attempt to alleviate each
and every one of them. The only treatment that can bring about a cure is one
that deals with the ailment, not with its symptoms.
Ending
the chaos which has dominated our political and economic life for four decades
entails a great deal of preparation. A solid groundwork must be laid before we
can come to grips with the roots of the problems and their main causes without
occasioning political and social 'cracks'. Nor is the task made any easier by
the political opposition groups in Egypt today, whose working methods are
characterized by intellectual hooliganism, sectarian priorities and barbaric
modes of discussion.
With
President Hosny Mubarak's reelection to a second term in office, hopes have
been raised in anticipation of a change in the manner of confronting problems,
moving from a stage of dealing with the multitude of symptoms to that of
attacking the causes of the diseases head-on. In fact, there are no more than
four main diseases:
The
first disease is embodied in the public sector. We believe the bottom line
target we must strive to achieve over the next six years is the liquidation of
those units in the public sector which are incurring losses. As long as they
remain, they will continue to be large gaping wounds needlessly bleeding our
economy white, to the benefit of no one except those who derive personal
advantage from the empire of a public sector, so detrimental to Egypt, to its
people and to its economy. However, if the public sector is put up for sale in
its present shape it would find no buyers. No private investor would accept to
purchase the loss-making public sector companies under the present labour
legislations. That being the case, we must agree on a policy to get rid of the
losing sectors and allow the private sector to operate unhampered by
legislations which would abort its success.
As
for public sector units which do not incur losses, they can hopefully be
helped to become economically viable if the millstones now hanging round their
necks are removed: viz, the prefixed prices at which they are now
forced to sell their products and the current Marxist-inspired labour
legislations under which the hands of management are effectively tied. These
laws have created a climate which not only protects lazy workers and offers no
incentive to efficient ones to maintain their standard but, by divesting
management of its primordial right to reward and sanction, puts paid to any
hopes of successful and efficient management.
Any
economist worth his salt, indeed, any informed layman, realizes the primacy of
management in the economy. Management is the creative factor which can bring
into being all the elements of success, just
as it can create the elements of failure and sterility. To deliver the
public sector from the constraint of inefficient management is extremely
difficult, but it is also a condition sine qua non. How else can we develop
the public sector under legislations which not only hamper management and
operation but also burden the boards of directors of public sector companies
with a quota of ignorance by requiring them to incorporate members who know
nothing of management or production?
The
same problem facing the boards of directors of public sector enterprises
exists on a much more dangerous level, that of the highest legislative council
in Egypt, the People's Assembly, which is required
by law to draw 50% of its members from among
those who have proved to be the least efficient, the least
knowledgeable, the least cultured and the least experienced. On this point, we
can only echo the views of the prominent writer, Mr. Tharwat Abaza, who quite
justifiably wonders how we could ever have allowed, indeed, how we could still
continue to allow, our laws to be passed by a council half of whose members do
not meet the minimal requirements of experience, culture, knowledge and
intellect. Suffice it to compare the standard of debate in the People's
Assembly with that of the Shura Council (the upper house of parliament), where
we have recently witnessed a style of debate marked by a sophisticated and
constructive exchange of ideas.
Thus
the first disease which plagues Egypt, namely, the public sector, can be
attributed to a flood of laws which undermine production and successful
management, in addition to imposing a quota of ignorance and inefficiency
which turns the boards of directors of public sector companies into sinecures
for the least experienced and least efficient groups: those who are fully
cognizant of their rights and minimally conscious of their obligations.
The
second disease or idol that needs to be confronted squarely and to be dealt
with boldly, openly and directly is the question of education. Our conclusions
on the matter are laid out in a series of articles now being published in
Al-Akhbar daily under the heading of: "The Tragedy of Education and
Culture in Egypt". The very future of Egypt depends on what remedial
steps we shall take in the field of education. If those who wish to retain the
idols inherited from years of errors and empty slogans win the day, and impede
enlightened efforts to reform the institution of education, there is no future
for Egypt. How can anyone believe that the present educational system can
possibly breed great scientists or learned men in any field, men without whom
there can be no kind of progress or development?
The
third disease or idol to be pulled down during President Mubarak's second term
of office is the general agricultural setup in Egypt. We do not in any way
propose the restitution of nationalised land to its original owners. No sane
man would make such a suggestion which would, anyhow, not solve the crisis of
agriculture in our country which we firmly believe was not,
is not and never will be due to the nationalisation of land. The main
cause was and still
is the body of laws governing the legal relationship between landowners
and tenant farmers. Unless Egyptian agriculture is liberated from those laws
that are so nefarious for the entire agricultural sector, the process of
deterioration which began thirty years ago when the new laws governing land
lease began to poison every possibility of progress, creativity, development
and versatility in Egyptian agriculture will continue.
If
we do not break the legal barriers which are so harmful for Egyptian
agriculture and the Egyptian economy, we will continue to import half of
Egypt's food, with all the implications this carries in the way of political
constraints. The greatest service anyone can render Egypt in this respect is
to achieve the country's self-sufficiency in wheat production. This is
possible only if we can bring about radical changes in the main orientations
of Egyptian agriculture, thus allowing Egypt to become truly independent and
not independent in name only.
The
fourth disease, or idol, to be confronted in the coming few years is that of
housing. The onset of the disease can be traced to a series of misguided
decisions issued in the fifties and early sixties by which the state hoped to
ease the plight of tenants and which led, instead, to their victimization. It
is to be hoped
that, when dealing with this major problem, the government will not
tackle the symptoms and neglect the disease. It is not by prohibiting the
practice of 'key
money' or discouraging ownership by tenants of residential flats that the
problem will be solved. This piecemeal approach is doomed to failure because
it addresses the symptoms rather than the disease itself. Key money is a
standard symptom of another disease, namely, housing legislations, which
govern landlord-tenant relations and which have produced three major results:
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Investors are reluctant to make substantial outlays of capital in the
construction of
housing units because of the poor return on investment as a result of
arbitrarily fixed rents which neither reflect reality nor the normal
interaction of supply and demand. Hence the decreasing number of available
housing units as compared to increasing demand.
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The market has engendered subsidiary
channels, such as key money and the sale of housing units, to
circumvent the crippling effects of housing laws.
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The quality of housing has deteriorated, with poor architecture, poor
construction techniques and poorer maintenance now the norm.
Hence
the hundreds of thousands of very low-grade houses that have sprung up and the
appallingly high incidence of buildings collapsing -often on the heads of the
tenants- because their owners tried to cut costs without regard to elementary
principles of safety in construction, nor, a priori, to considerations of
aesthetics. Those who advocate such measures as prohibiting ownership of
residential flats or as compelling owners of vacant flats to lease them out
are obviously not versed in economic laws. Had they been, they would have
known that such measures are useless and impractical, no more, in fact, than a
panacea for one of the symptoms and not a cure for the disease itself.
Such
then are the four major diseases or idols from which Egypt suffers today. A
comprehensive cure, one that attacks the very roots and causes of these
diseases, is what we expect from President Mubarak's second term in office.
The present government's handling of the problems of subsidies and rates of
currency exchange is cause for optimism that the cure is a real possibility
and not just a dream.
As to why we chose to head this article "The Four Idols", it is
because the condition of these four major areas, the public sector, education
agriculture and housing in Egypt, has become similar to that of idols of
ancient times with their high priests who, alone, benefit from their
existence. As for the rest of the people, they are the ones who suffer from
the perpetuation of such idols and their professional high priests.
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